The 17 weeks of the regular football season are now in the books.  Seeds have been set and now all that matters are the few weeks that lie ahead.  For the 8 teams not lucky (or skilled) enough to be awarded a first-round bye, the fun starts this weekend.  One of the more interesting matchups occurs on Saturday night, with the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6).  Strangely, the team that has the better record and will be playing a home game is a 3-point underdog.  Let’s break down why.

The Bengals cruised through the first 8 weeks of the season.  They ripped off 8 straight wins and enjoyed the best start in their franchise history.  Even through week 13 they sat at 10-2 and looked to be competing for one of the top 2 seeds in the playoffs accompanied by that coveted first-round bye.  All of that was derailed in week 14, when the Bengals lost not only an important game to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but also their starting quarterback.  Andy Dalton, who was enjoying his best season yet as a Bengal and looked to finally turn a corner, was injured trying to make a tackle after an interception.  He would wind up with a cast on his throwing hand and the Bengals would have to turn to their 5th round pick out of Alabama, AJ McCarron.  The Bengals would then stumble to a 2-2 finish over the last 4 games, while only scoring 21 points per game in McCarron’s starts.

The Steelers, on the other hand, did not enjoy a great start to the season.  They would only get off to a 4-4 start with their starting quarterback changing from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Vick to Landry Jones and finally back to Ben Roethlisberger thanks to a myriad of different injuries.  With their normal starting running back, Le’Veon Bell, going down early in the year as well it looked like it would be a lost season.  The Steelers would somehow right the ship, winning 4 of their last 5 games with a healthy Roethlisberger and slipping into the final seed of the AFC playoffs thanks to a loss by the hapless Jets to the Buffalo Bills in a do-or-die situation.  A lot of the credit can be given to receiving monster Antonio Brown.  Brown finished the season with a ridiculous 136 catches for 1,834 yards.  That yardage is good for 4th most in a season all-time.  The Steelers would then draw the aforementioned Bengals in the first round, a division for they are quite familiar with.  The Bengals and Steelers split the season series 1-1 with each team losing their respective home games.  Who is going to win the rubber match?

I would have to go with the Steelers on this one.  If the Bengals had Andy Dalton healthy I would have to side with them.  However, since McCarron has taken over his play has not quite been as pretty as his famous wife.  In his 3 starts he is averaging only 184 passing yards per game.  The Steelers are amongst the top of the league in that stat, even with the games not start by Roethlisberger factored in.  The Bengals have a few small glimmers of hope.  Their defense is formidable, only allowing an average of 17.4 points per game to opponents.  The Steelers also suffered another key injury in DeAngelo Williams, who has done a great job filling in for Bell at running back.  The Steelers will be forced to turn to Fitz Toussaint and Jordan Todman in the backfield.  In the end, however, I don’t think McCarron will be able to keep up with the points scored by the Steelers and the explosive combination of Roethlisberger and Brown.  Expect a close game with the Steelers coming out on top, 27-20.

 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com

Photo courtesy of bleacherreport.com

Cover photo courtesy of sports wire.usatoday.com